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Washington CNN —The Federal Reserve is expected to announce Wednesday that it is keeping interest rates at a quarter-century high for the sixth-straight meeting. Other Fed officials have already introduced the possibility of a rate hike, in addition to the chance of no rate cuts this year. Williams later said that another rate hike is possible if economic data warrants it. That combination eerily resembled stagflation, which triggered a broad stocks selloff on Wall Street Thursday. The threshold for a rate hike is ‘extremely high’Another interest rate hike is back in the conversation, but at the moment, it’s still not likely the Fed will do that.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, John Williams, Williams, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, , can’t, it’s, Goldman Sachs, Wall, ” Oren Klachkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Index, New York Fed, Bloomberg, Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Commerce Department, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Nationwide, CNN Locations: New, Chicago, Wells Fargo
The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9622% after falling by more than two basis points. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Friday as investors considered the latest economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and considered what this could mean for monetary policy. Investors digested the latest economic data and remarks from policymakers as they considered the outlook for interest rates. Fed officials have in recent days and weeks indicated that interest rates may remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated. Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said rate cuts may not come until the end of the year, and that he was "comfortable being patient," while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested rate cuts may not begin until 2025.
Persons: John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis, Investors, NBC News Locations: Philadelphia, Israel
Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Thursday as the S&P 500 heads for its worst week in almost six months. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were both flat. The S&P 500 has fallen for five sessions in a row, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.2%. It would be the large-cap benchmark's third straight negative week and its biggest losing week since Oct. 27, 2023. The S&P 500 is now 4.8% off its 52-week high.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, who's, Michael Landsberg Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Netflix, Minneapolis, Fox News, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, Dow, Companies, Procter, Gamble, American Express
Inflation slowed substantially in 2023 as the Fed lifted rates to nearly a quarter-century high and held them at that level since July. Still, most Fed officials have signaled that they plan to cut rates this year if the economy evolves as expected. And if the inflation situation worsens even further, the Fed may even have to consider raising rates. Like Bowman and Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams said rate hikes aren’t part of his baseline outlook. The timing of that first rate cut is critical because if the Fed cuts too soon, it risks locking in inflation at a high level.
Persons: hasn’t, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Bowman, John Williams, he’s, ” Williams, Williams, Jerome Powell, Susan Collins, ” Collins, Powell, Larry Summers, ” Summers, Summers, Goldman Sachs, Organizations: CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, ” Minneapolis, Kashkari , New York Fed, Boston, CPI, Bloomberg, UBS, Barclays, Bank of America Locations: Kashkari , New
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3 basis points lower at 4.392%, easing from multi-month highs. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.77% after dipping by close to 2 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields fell Tuesday as investors looked ahead to fresh inflation insights due later this week which could provide clues about the path ahead for monetary policy. Investors awaited key inflation figures as they considered the state of the economy and the outlook for interest rates. At their last meeting, central bank officials said they were expecting three rate cuts to take place this year.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, CPI Locations: Minneapolis
European markets are heading for a negative start Tuesday as investors look ahead to more key economic data this week, including U.S. inflation figures out Wednesday. Markets continue to see a roughly 50% chance of a cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch tool, although Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari last week raised the possibility of zero rate cuts this year if inflation remains sticky. U.S. stock futures were little changed overnight, while Asia-Pacific markets were mixed overnight as investors awaited consumer confidence data from Japan.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: Minneapolis Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan
All eyes will now be on Wednesday's consumer price index, after February's annual inflation rate of 3.2% came in slightly higher than expected. George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars, told CNBC on Monday that rate cuts in the summer were now looking much less likely. "Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw less rate cuts and pushed more towards the end of the year," he told "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday. Despite this, he said it remains "very likely" that there will be rate cuts this year. They do not want to be the Fed that cut rates as inflation kept beating expectations.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, George Lagarias, Lagarias Organizations: U.S . Federal, Minneapolis, CNBC
The regional Stoxx 600 closed up 0.5%, with mining stocks up 2% and media stocks down 0.2%. The benchmark index dropped 1.2% last week, its worst performance since January after a run of consistent gains. European stocks closed higher Monday at the start of a busy a week of key data releases and central bank decisions. U.S. stocks also had a shaky week, though a stronger-than-expected jobs report released Friday boosted sentiment around the economy and earnings. The European Central Bank meets Thursday for its latest monetary policy decision.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal, Minneapolis, European Central Bank
But a resurgence in the industry could complicate the Federal Reserve’s ongoing inflation fight, either delaying the first interest rate cut or resulting in fewer cuts this year, some economists say. Interest rates have been at a two-decade high since July, after the Fed raised rates aggressively over the prior year and a half. The economy picking up further strength would spook Wall Street because of what it means for interest rates — and some manufacturers say they’re optimistic about the future. The Bank of Canada announces its latest interest rate decision. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases March inflation data.
Persons: Joe Biden, , Tom Barkin, , Mary Daly, ” Daly, Jerome Powell, Neel Kashkari, ” Kashkari, ” Richard de Chazal, Blair, they’re “, Amazon’s, It’s, Ramishah Maruf, Amazon, haven’t, Read Organizations: Washington CNN, Institute for Supply Management, Congress, Fed, ” Richmond Fed, ” San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dow, Blair Equity Research, Amazon, Fresh, Delta Air Lines, US Labor Department, Index, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Statistics, Constellation Brands, European Central Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, State, National Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: Richmond , Virginia, ” San, Las Vegas, India, Wells Fargo, Progressive, BlackRock
Investors are starting to take seriously the idea that the Fed might not cut interest rates in 2024. At this point, investors are viewing economic strength as ultimately good news for the stock market, if that means a recession is delayed. AdvertisementFrom seven, to three, to now potentially zero, projected interest rate cuts in 2024 are quickly going out of style on Wall Street. So a delay in interest rate cuts, on paper, would suggest lower stock prices. And better-than-expected first quarter profits have helped put a floor on a stock market that is trading near record highs, even as talks of interest rate cuts fade.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Mohamed El, Torsten Slok, Slok, Ken Fisher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Bank of America
The 2-year Treasury yield was also marginally higher at 4.648%. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading up less than one basis point at 4.318% at 4:02 a.m. The jobs figures will play into market expectations of when the Federal Reserve could start to cut interest rates. At its last meeting, the central bank indicated that it still expects three rate cuts by the end of this year. However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Thursday became the latest high-profile figure to question whether there will be any rate cuts if inflation remains high.
Persons: Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Investments, Traders
Asia-Pacific markets were largely set to fall on Friday, mirroring moves on Wall Street after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials fueled worries that the central bank could hold off on rate cuts. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari cast doubts on Thursday over the central bank cutting rates at all if inflation remained sticky. Oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude surpassing $86 a barrel to test six-month highs. Brent crude prices also set a new six-month high of $90.65. S&P will also release its business activity numbers for Hong Kong, while the Reserve Bank of India will announce its rate decision later in the day.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Brent, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Hong Kong
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius on Friday said he still expects the Federal Reserve to implement three interest rate cuts, adding that he would be "very surprised" if the U.S. central bank ultimately decided no trims at all were necessary. His comments come shortly after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari became the latest high-profile official to float the possibility of zero rate cuts before the year's end, if inflation remained sticky. "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said on Thursday during an interview with Pensions & Investments. Separately, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier in the week that it would take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, leaving the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain. Speaking to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum on Friday, Goldman Sachs' Hatzius said he was bullish on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Persons: Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Steve Sedgwick, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, I'm, we've Organizations: Reserve, Minneapolis, Pensions, Investments Locations: U.S
Dollar steady ahead of jobs data; yen hits two-week high
  + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen, while still close to the 152 range, hit a two-week high against the greenback as safe-haven bids and fresh warnings from Japanese authorities buoyed the currency. The dollar has had a turbulent week, falling from a five-month high to a two-week low after an unexpected slowdown in U.S. services growth supported expectations of bringing interest rates down. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was last largely unchanged at 104.18. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Friday reiterated the government's resolve to take appropriate action against sharp yen falls. The yen strengthened 0.29% versus the greenback to a two-week high of 150.92.
Persons: payrolls, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Charu Chanana, Joe Biden, Matt Simpson, Shunichi Suzuki, Kazuo Ueda, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, The U.S, greenback, Minneapolis Federal, Saxo, Biden, Finance, Bank of Japan, Asahi Locations: The, Minneapolis, Gaza, Iran
Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly. "Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run." The speech, to the Shadow Open Market Committee, comes with markets on edge about the near-term future of Fed policy. Weighing inflation risks, she said that supply-side improvements that helped bring numbers down this year may not have the same impact going forward. Fed officials will get their next look at inflation data Wednesday, when the Labor Department releases the March consumer price index report.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal, of Governors, Market, Committee, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York
Despite Thursday's declines, the S & P 500 is only 2% from last week's record highs. The surprise isn't that the S & P 500 dropped Thursday. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months First-quarter earnings estimates for the S & P 500 have slipped to an expected gain of 5.1%, down from an anticipated increase of 7.2% on Jan. 1, according to LSEG. Since earnings are what ultimately moves stocks, the question is not "What would cause a modest 2% to 5% decline?" To do that, market participants would need to believe that earnings estimates were off significantly.
Persons: Daniel Kahneman, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Neel Kashkari, it's, John Butters, Charles Schwab Organizations: Economic Sciences, Israel's, Federal Reserve Bank of, FactSet Locations: Gaza, Iran, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange on April 5, 2024. Stocks rebounded Friday following the Dow Jones Industrial Average 's worst session in more than a year as traders cheered a stronger-than-expected jobs report and looked past a jump in rates. The 30-stock Dow climbed 307.06 points, or 0.8%, to settle at 38,904.04. The Dow slid 2.27%, posting its worst weekly performance in 2024. The Dow tumbled about 530 points, or 1.35%, on Thursday, marking its biggest daily drop since March 2023 and its fourth consecutive losing session.
Persons: Stocks, Dow, Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Jamie Cox, Neel Kashkari Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Labor, Federal Reserve, Harris Financial, Minneapolis Federal Locations: Minneapolis
The 2-year Treasury note yield traded marginally higher at 4.685%. The 10-year Treasury yield was slightly higher on Thursday as investors closely monitored speeches from a host of Federal Reserve officials and awaited the release of key economic data. It comes as market participants continue to keep track of comments from Fed officials and await the release of the U.S. jobs report on Friday. A flurry of Fed speeches are also scheduled to take place. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are just some of the officials poised to deliver comments on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Patrick Harker, Tom Barkin, Neel Kashkari, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Stanford University, Traders, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed, Minneapolis Fed Locations: U.S, Richmond
Fed officials have said rate cuts are coming soon, but inflation must still cool further. Markets are placing the greatest odds on a rate cut in June, fed fund futures show. AdvertisementFederal Reserve officials have said interest rate cuts are coming this year, but there's not an exact date in their outlook just yet. Those expectations were little changed after Tuesday's inflation report, which showed CPI came in hotter than expected in February. Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run."
Persons: , there's, CME's, Jerome Powell, " Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Capital, Capital Economics, Labor
High interest rates squeeze companies of all sizes, but that’s especially the case for smaller firms, unlike large companies better equipped to weather the storm. Before the Bell: How do the effects of higher-for-longer interest rates on companies vary by size? I think it might be a stretch to say that M&A activity picks up because of higher interest rates, so instead, it’s that if good businesses are beginning to suffer because of higher interest rates, then they might be more likely to be a target. Gas prices always rise as winter winds down because demand increases and gas stations must switch over to more expensive summer fuel. No matter the cause, rising gas prices are bad news for consumers already frustrated by the cost of living.
Persons: It’s, Bell, Lauren Goodwin, Matt Egan, , Patrick De Haan, doesn’t, ” Read, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Lisa Cook, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, AAA, , HSBC, Walmart, Home Depot, Barclays, Caesars Entertainment, Nvidia, Rivian, Fidelity, Marriott, Intuit, Pacific Gas & Electric, Global, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Warner Bros ., Icahn Enterprises Locations: Washington, Wingstop, United States
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.1715% and the yield on the 2-year Treasury was steady at 4.4651%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors weighed fresh economic data and considered the path ahead for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors looked to the latest economic releases for hints about the state of the economy and the potential path ahead for interest rates. It comes amid rife speculation over the timeline of interest rate cuts, with Fed officials appearing cautious and dashing investor hopes of a reduction as early as March. No key economic data is due Friday, however investors are looking ahead to major data releases slated for next week including January's consumer price index.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Dow, Fed, Minneapolis
The dollar is back. It’s not all good news
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —The greenback is strengthening again after a bumpy 2023, as Wall Street accepts that interest rate cuts are coming later than previously expected. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against the British pound, euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, is up 2.8% for the year as of Friday morning. “All of a sudden the interest rate differential kicks in — if that is slower than the Fed or faster,” said Krosby. Higher interest rates tend to garner more international capital to flow into a country, raising demand for the currency and thus its value. Still, Todd Jones, chief investment officer at Gratus Capital, says he expects the dollar to trend lower eventually as the Fed gets closer to cutting rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Quincy Krosby, , Neel Kashkari, Todd Jones, Jones, Anna Cooban, Richard Meade, Janet Yellen, Alicia Wallace, Yellen, ” Yellen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Swiss, Canadian, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, LPL, Treasury, Minneapolis, Gratus, Fed, Hamas, Lloyds, CNN, Banking Committee Locations: New York, Swedish, Iran, Suez, Asia, Europe
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up by just over one basis point to 4.1095%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by less than one basis point at 4.4185%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Thursday as investors considered remarks from Federal Reserve officials about the path ahead for interest rate cuts. On Wednesday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC's "Squawk Box" that he believes two or three rate cuts would take place in 2024. The comments echoed those made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week and stoked concerns among investors that fewer rate cuts than they have been expecting could be implemented.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, CNBC's, Jerome Powell, Adriana Kugler, Powell Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis Federal, Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMinneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari: 2 to 3 rate cuts seem appropriate right now based on the dataMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the strong labor market, impact on the Fed's inflation fight, rate path outlook, commercial real estate sector, and more.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: Minneapolis
The bank announced earlier on Wednesday that it had appointed DiNello, formerly the president of Flagstar Bank, to the position effective immediately. The bank holds total deposits of approximately $83 billion, the lender said in a statement Tuesday evening. US banks hold about $2.7 trillion in commercial real estate loans. But while the last crisis was all about interest rate risk, this one revolves around the $20 trillion commercial real estate market. The increase was driven partly by expected losses on commercial real estate loans, it said.
Persons: ” Alessandro DiNello, DiNello, NYCB, , weren’t, Fitch, Thomas Cangemi, ” DiNello, Goldman Sachs, Moody’s, Neel Kashkari, ” Kashkari, he’s, Janet Yellen, , Yellen, “ I’m, ” Yellen Organizations: New, New York CNN —, New York Community Bancorp, Moody’s Investors Service, Flagstar Bank, Bank, Moody’s, JPMorgan, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley, Regulators, Federal, Community Bancorp, CNBC, Financial Locations: New York, Flagstar, New, Minneapolis
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